I am currently pursuing four research lines: (1) How do people process (mis)information and what is the role of source crediblity and media trust? (2) How are political attitudes are affected by media exposure, specifically through web browsing? (3) What drives politicians to engage in negative campaigning? (4) How does ecological change affect political behaviour? I use data from online experiments, surveys, social media, trace data, and geospatial administrative data. Methodologically, I am interested in computational methods, measurement, causal inference, browsing data analysis, and open science. Below, an overview of publications (work in progress greyed out).

Misinformation, fake news and source credibility

"Truth and Bias: Left and Right. Testing ideological asymmetries with a realistic news supply", Public Opinion Quarterly, 2023
Paper | Pre-registration | Replication code

"When Do Sources Persuade? The Effect of Source Credibility on Opinion Change", with Andy M. Guess (Princeton University), Journal of Experimental Political Science, 2022
Paper | Pre-registration | Replication code

"Horseshoe Patterns: Visualizing Partisan Media Trust in Germany", with Paul C. Bauer (MZES University of Mannheim), Socius, 2021
Paper | Replication code

"Believing and Sharing Information by Fake Sources: An Experiment", with Paul C. Bauer (MZES University of Mannheim), Political Communication, 2021
Paper | Pre-registration | Replication code

"Truth and Bias: Robust findings?", 2020
Working paper | Replication code

"An Ocean of Possible Truth: Biased Processing of News on Social Media", 2018
Working paper | Replication code

"School Debating and Misinformation Detection: A Randomized Control Trial in Poland" with Krzys Krakowski (Collegio Carlo Alberto) and Davide Morisi (Collegio Carlo Alberto), review & resubmit at Journal of Politics

Media effects and exposure

"Non-news websites expose people to more political content than news websites: Evidence from browsing data in three countries", with Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), Sjifra de Leeuw (University of Amsterdam), João Gonçalves (University of Rotterdam), Sam Davidson (UC Davis), Alexandre Gonçalves (Columbia University), Political Communication, 2023
Paper | Replication code

"Null effects of news exposure: a test of the (un)desirable effects of a 'news vacation' and 'news binging'", with Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Andreu Casas (VU Amsterdam), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), Sjifra de Leeuw, Alexandre Gonçalves (UC Davis) and Miriam Boon (University of Regina), Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 2022
Paper | Pre-registration | Replication code

"The (Null) Over-time Effects of Exposure to Local News Websites: Evidence from Trace Data", with Jane Cronin (American University), João Gonçalves (University of Rotterdam), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 2022
Paper | Replication code

"Micro Influence and Macro Dynamics of Opinion Formation", with Michael Mäs (University of Groningen) and Bary Pradelski (CNRS/Grenoble), 2017
Working paper

"The Cure Worse Than the Disease? How the Media's Attention to Misinformation Decreases Trust" with Emma Hoes (University of Zürich), Theresa Gessler (European University Viadrina), Sijia Qian (UC Davis), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), review & resubmit at International Journal of Press/Politics
Pre-print | Pre-registration

"Causes of perceived polarization: An over-time analysis of the effects of media coverage of polarization in three countries" with Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis) and Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), review & resubmit at Political Communication

"Incentivizing news consumption with bots on Twitter", with Hadi Askari (UC Davis), Michael Heseltine (University of Amsterdam), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University), Zubair Shafiq (UC Davis) and Anshuman Chabra (UC Davis). Work in progress.

Environmental change and politics

"Wolf attacks predict far-right voting", with Anselm Hager (HU Berlin), PNAS, 2022
Paper | Pre-registration | Replication code

"The effect of legal hunting on livestock depredation", with Neil Carter (Michigan State University), Leandra Merz (Michigan State University) & Jeremy Bruskotter (Ohio State University). Work in progress.

"Do wolf attacks affect electoral behavior? Evidence from the U.S.", with Neil Carter (Michigan State University), Leandra Merz (Michigan State University). Work in progress.

Negativity in political campaigning

"Why Do Candidates 'Go Negative'? Unpacking the Mechanisms of Negative Campaigning" with Sebastian Stier (GESIS), Corinna Oschatz (University of Amsterdam), Alessandro Nai (University of Amsterdam), Jürgen Maier (RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau) and Nora Kirkizh (TU Munich). Work in progress.

"Predictors of Negative Campaigning at the local and national level" with Sebastian Stier (GESIS), Corinna Oschatz (University of Amsterdam), Jürgen Maier (RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau). Work in progress.


"Google News API" in Paul C. Bauer and Camille Landesvater (2022): "APIs for social scientists: A collaborative review"
Chapter | Repository

"Statistical analysis of trace data: a guide", with Sebastian Stier (GESIS), Ana S. Cardenal (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya), Andy Guess (Princeton), Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis) & Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University). Social Science Computer Review, 2024.
Paper | Code guide

"Large Language Models as a Substitute for Human Experts in Annotating Political Text" with Michael Heseltine (University of Amsterdam). Under Review at Research and Politics.

"Measuring news exposure with self-reports and traces: bias on both sides?", with Chankyung Pak (Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University), Ericka Menchen-Trevino (American University) & Magdalena Wojcieszak (UC Davis). Work in progress.

"Stimulus validity": Building on the working paper "Truth and Bias: Robust findings?" posted below, I argue that researchers in political science often design their studies around stimuli that are supposed to represent a larger universe of information, yet they rarely justify their selection of stimuli. Work in progress.

"Media Ideology in Multiparty Systems: Validated Scores for 16 European Countries" with Michael Heseltine (University of Amsterdam). Estimating media ideology with social media sharing patterns has so far been restricted to the US. We add to literature with data from Europe. Work in progress.

Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg

Quantitative Political Scientist